Of Mice and Me Essay Example for Free

Of Mice and Me Essay Of mice and men is a Film about life in a ranch, well done, with a low budget but with a lot of creativity. The directors are Gary Since and Horton Foot, Since plays an important part in the film as George. The other main actors are John Malcovich as Lenny and Sherlin Flynn as Curleys wife. Very good actors and know how to interpret each characters. Curleys wife has a very low profile in comparison with the book. Well the film starts when they escape from weed because they think Lenny raped a girl. They go to a ranch to work. There is a guy named Curly who hates big guys like Lenny, he has a wife who likes to flirt with men at the ranch. Curly has a fight with Lenny and Lenny breaks Curleys hand. They say he caught it in a machine. Gorge and Lenny tell Candy about their dream and they decide to do it together. Lenny is playing with a pup and he realizes its dead, suddenly Curleys wife gets in they start talking and she says to him to touch her hare. He dose it so hard she starts to scream and Lenny gets nervous and he ends up killing her. He runs away. Candy tells the guys and they go and look for Lenny. Gorge arrives first and while he is telling him their dream he kills him. The part of Lenny its grate. The actor was perfectly chosen in the physical part and its interpretation as Lenny its just like I imagined in the book. The part of George was good but not perfect. In the book talks a lot and has a very tight relationship with slim and he treats Lenny very badly in the film he is more quiet and more gentile with Lenny. I personally did not like Curleys wife. In the book they describe her like a tart. She likes to where fancy dresses and feathers. In the film she is more reserved and less flirty. The music and lights play a major part in the film. For example the sins in the bunk house are always dark, with very little light in the middle of the bunk house. A very good example of music its when George is running to the pool at the ending they put nervous music because George its nervous, that makes a big effect in the audience. The novel is a protest novel with deep content but in the feel this is not so clear. The film could represent these themes in a better way if Curleys wife was more of a tart or if crooks part was the same as in the book, longer and expressing more resentment feelings. I would recommend this film only for people who read the book because it helps to understand many aspects but for people who did not red it could be very slow and boring. This film its good only as a complement of the book. Its good to rescue the actuation of John Malcovich who did a brilliant part and the good music and light effects.

Volcanic Ash Cloud Modelling Using Visual Basic Application

Volcanic Ash Cloud Modelling Using Visual Basic Application RESEARCH ARTICLE ABSTRACT Recently, the study of volcanic eruption and ash cloud dispersion has become important due to the severe risks and hazards associated with it. The negative impact it has on human livelihood, infrastructure, transportation, water supply, farming, and the environment and the environment as a whole needs serious attention. This has prompted many researchers to investigate the dynamics of volcanic ash clouds by utilizing an objective methodology, utilizing high-spatial determination pictures and complimentary ground based observation. These models have being instrumental in understanding past eruptions and also for future prediction and planning to mitigate it effects. The models for ash cloud usually require some parameters for their stimulation which would be depends on the type of model or software to be used. For the purpose of this article, Visual Basic Application (VBA) software has been used to study the 2014 Mount Mayon eruption. The codes were developed using vent coordinate, di ffusion coefficient, wind velocity, iteration and time step. The results from the simulation show the ash clouds dispersed in the NE direction. The results of the codes modelled showed diffusion and advection of ash plumes using a two dimensional array. Arcmap was used to output the results of the stimulation. Kernel density and spatial contour tools were also used to examine and interpretate the output of the simulation, showing the high risk of volcanic ash cloud in the Mount Mayon region. Visual Basic Application (VBA) was chosen for the study because it is simple, fast, convenient and affordable while proving to be equally accurate for modelling large particles. Nonetheless, the utilization of much more advanced models will provide more accurate results. Population growth and increase in urbanization in regions inclined to volcanic ash risks requires risk reduction and mitigation strategies. KEYWORDS: Volcanic Eruption, Mount Mayon, Hazard Modeling, Ash Cloud, Visual Basic Application. 1.0 INTRODUCTION The objective of natural hazards and risks assessment is to determine the extent and nature of risk in a particular area by evaluating potential hazards that together could harm people destroy properties, goods and services (UNISDR, 2009). Various studies have identified societys increasing vulnerability to disasters as a consequence of population expansion in hazardous areas and increasing economic and environmental strains (Rougier et al., 2013). The socio-economic and physical impact of volcanic ash on the environment is obviously massive. Studies and observations over the years have significantly enhanced our understanding as seen in the past 30 years (e.g., Soufrià ¨re Hills (Montserrat), 1995; Eyjafjallajà ¶kull (Iceland), 2010) (Vervaeck, 2012). The current effects that are associated with the volcano eruption have made the study of volcanic ash multidisciplinary. The negative impacts on human livelihood, infrastructure, transportation, power supply, agriculture, water and t he environment has caused tremendous damages. In order to minimize risk in highly affected areas and improve on hazard assessment, there is the need to use effective modelling tools to gather information on key risk indicators in ash dispersion. Successful displaying devices for anticipating ash remains scattering and transport can significantly add to hazard assessment and mitigation of risk in exceptionally influenced regions (Andreastuti, Alloway Smith, 2000). This aim of the study is to review the formation, movement and effects of the 2014 Mount Mayon eruption. The Visual Basic Application (VBA) software has been used for the modelling of ash cloud in the study area. The codes developed using input parameters seeks to demonstrate the possible pattern of the ash cloud dispersion with likely solutions. 1.1 STUDY AREA. Mount Mayon (13 °15à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ²24à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ³N 123 °41à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ²6à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ³E) is an active stratovolcano in the province of Albay in Bicol Region, on the island of Luzon in the Philippines. Renowned as the perfect cone because of its symmetric conical shape, the volcano and its surrounding landscape was declared a national park on July 20, 1938, the first in the nation. Mayon is the main landmark and highest point of the province of Albay and the whole Bicol Region in the Philippines, rising 2,462 metres (8,077 ft.) from the shores of the Albay Gulf about 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) away. The volcano is geographically shared by the eight cities and municipalities of Legazpi, Daraga, Camalig, Guinobatan, Ligao, Tabaco, Malilipot and Santo Domingo (clockwise from Legazpi), which divide the cone like slices of a pie when viewed from above. Historically the Mt. Mayon region of the Philippines has also been particularly hard hit by lahars because of volcanic erupt ions that produce ash deposits on steep volcanic slopes which may later become mobilized by heavy cyclonic rains (Orense 2007). Geologically, Mount Mayon rock type is Basalt to Olivine-bearing Pyroxene Andesite and Bicol Volcanic Chain tectonic setting. Mayon is the most active volcano in the Philippines and it is constantly degassing and has erupted violently 54 times in the last 400 years (Ramos-Villarta et al. 1985). Upper slopes are quite steep while slope angle diminishes in a very regular way with descent to sea level (Fano et al. 2007). Most eruptions involve large ashcloud discharges, though pyroclastic and lava flows are also common, and magma composition is basaltic to olivine-bearing pyroxene andesite. Figure1: Map of study area, Mount Mayon; Source (Google maps) 2. COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW OF THE RESEARCH LITERATURE 2.1 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW The formation of volcanic ash is initiated by volcanic eruption events. Ash particle comprises of various sizes, elevation, and distances which disseminate into airspace. Ash cloud generates from a partial or complete eruption process (Cas Wright, 1987 and move rapidly with speed of 10-65m/s, reaching high temperature of between 100 to 800oC (Blong, 1984) (Figure 2). Moreover, vast scale effects are related with volcanic ash cloud dispersion. Therefore, the assessment of volcanic ash hazards is essential in the socio-economic, scientific, and political affairs of any society more importantly in a region with dense population. The rise in population and increase in urbanization of areas prone to volcanic ash hazards demand the invention and application of suitable measures. Risk assessment and mitigation strategies must be enforced if major eruption is to be prevented (Baxter et al., 2008). Figure 2: Mount Mayon 2014 ash cloud dispersion; Source google (Google images). 2.2.1 BACKGROUND TO VOLCANIC ASH Volcanic ash is produced during volatile volcanic eruptions, phreatomagmatic eruptions and movement in pyroclastic density currents. Explosive eruptions occur when magma decompresses as it rises, allowing dissolved volatiles to resolve into gas bubbles. Remote sensing results (Rose et al., 2000) and distal ash sampling studies (Durant et al., 20 09) strongly suggest that both à ¯Ã‚ ¬Ã‚ ne and very à ¯Ã‚ ¬Ã‚ ne ash mostly fall within a day of their eruption, much faster than à ¯Ã‚ ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å¡uid dynamics modeling suggests. Volcanic ash particles less than 2mm are pyroclast and particles greater than 2mm are lapilli. Regardless of the process of formation, volcanic ash are produced and determined by various factors such as particle size distribution, wind velocity, magma fragmentation and magma discharge. Altitude of 20-50km characterizes turbulent jets of explosive volcanic eruptions which convey ash and gas mixtures into the atmosphere (Carazzo Jellinek, 2012). Particles aggregati on is presumed to increase of fine ash fallout whereas sedimentation of pumice and ash particles is controlled by their separate settling velocities (Rose Durant, 2011). Combined studies have shown that volcanic cloud ash mass decreases by an order of magnitude in 24 h (Rose et al., 2000).This rapid fallout of very à ¯Ã‚ ¬Ã‚ ne ash creates distal mass deposition maxima in tephra deposits at distances several 100s of km downwind(Brazier et al., 1983; Durant and Rose,). The distal ash sedimentation process is poorly understood but is clearly tied to meteorological processes that promote aggregation, e.g., hydrometeor formation, and inà ¯Ã‚ ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å¡uence cloud dynamics (Durant et al., 2009). 2.2.2 VOLCANIC ASH EFFECTS 2.2.2.1 Effects on Water Supplies Effects of volcanic ash on water supplies have been critically severe that it makes livelihood unbearable. Studies describing these impacts are described fully in Stewart et al. (2006). Effects include physical blockages of intake structures by ash and damage due to abrasion or corrosion of equipment. The major public health concerns are thought to be the potential for outbreaks of waterborne infectious diseases due to the inhibition of disinfection by high levels of turbidity, and elevated concentrations of fluoride increasing risks of dental and skeletal fluorosis. Physical impacts of ash and problems due to high levels of acidity, turbidity and fluoride are well-documented; however, little attention has been paid to the other soluble components of volcanic ashfall and their potential consequences for water supplies. Water usage can be expected to increase significantly as affected communities begin cleanup operations (Johnston, 1997b; Johnston et al., 2004). 2.2.2.2 Effects on Agricultural Activities Volcanic ash has a massive negative effect on farms since agricultural activities depend greatly on natural and irrigation means of water supply. Some farms are supplied by district or regional water supply schemes. Reported impacts on water supply schemes include (Johnston et al., 2004) suspended ash blocking intake filters, particularly for river-fed water supplies. This has put increasing pressure on water resources, especially for irrigation and stock water, requiring that the resource be actively managed. The uncommon unsettled climate and atmosphere at mid-scope in 1816 and 1817 had major financial effects, especially as far as a poor yield of horticulture creation, lack of healthy sustenance and considerably an expanded potential for infections and plagues (Trigo et al., 2009). 2.2.2.3 Effects on Infrastructure About nine percent of the worlds population lives within 100 km of a historically active volcano (Horwell and Baxter, 2006). This percentage will probably increase due to higher rates of population growth in many countries like Colombia, Ecuador and the Philippines that are highly volcanically active. Even though volcanic ash rarely endanger human life directly, it negative effects on critical infrastructure services such as electricity and water supplies, health facilities, transport routes, aviation, buildings and primary production, can lead to significant societal impacts (Horwell and Baxter, 2006 and Stewart et al., 2006). Moreover, fairly small eruptions can lead to widespread disruption, damage and economic loss. For example, the 1995/1996 eruptions of Ruapehu volcano in the central North Island of New Zealand were very small by geological standards but still covered over 20,000 km2 of land and caused significant disruption and damage to aviation, communication networks, a hyd ro-electric power scheme, electricity transmission lines, water supply networks, wastewater treatment plants, agriculture and the tourism industry (Cronin et al., 1998 and Johnston et al., 2000). 2.3 ASH CLOUD MODELLING Models have been utilized for decades to forecast ash fall during volcanic eruptions. However, it is only in recent years have tephra models like Ash3D been developed that use a 3-D, time-changing wind field, enabling us to model eruptions that last weeks and spread ash across an entire continent. These features, plus the development of a method for calculating growth of an umbrella cloud, have made it possible to simulate eruptions of this scale. Particles of ash are dispersed into the atmosphere in different directions during an explosive eruption, but the variation differences in altitude, wind speed and direction, and temperature are great influence (Carey and Sparks, 1986). Satellite based identification methods are presently used in monitoring eruptive plumes, but this practice has its limitations such as irregular satellites captures. The use of dispersal models to forecast both the deposition of ash particles on the ground and airborne is one important way of solving such cha llenges (Carey and Sparks, 1986). Observations measured from the ground are used to identify and examine volcanic ash clouds in addition to satellite data. New and evolving volcanic ash clouds have been detected using both specialized and well graded weather radar systems (Schneider et al, 2008). Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersal models (VATD) are models that are mostly utilized for modelling volcanic ash and are extremely useful when simulating ash particles in order to reduce the risk and hazards posed by volcanic ash. These models are required to provide fairly accurate forecast and location of the volcanic ash and produce hazard maps fast enough to warn pilots of the danger routes (Peterson and Dean 2007). Also volcano observatories and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAAC) use these models to issue out forecast before, during and slightly after eruptions Generally, volcanic ash cloud models are tools that efficiently combine source input parameters in a short period of time a nd can be used to predict ash dispersion in an emergency situation and can help mitigate the risk and hazards related with such fallout during an eruption 2.4. ASH MODELLING PARAMETERS. Volcanic ash cloud modeling need certain input parameters such as volcano location, date, time and duration of each eruption, source geometry, plume height, eruption rate, vertical ash distribution and particle size distribution. Plume height is simply the altitude at which most volcanic ash spreads laterally from the plume into the ash cloud. The relationship between plume height and eruption rate is possibly the most extensively studied among any sources parameters (Mastin et al., 2009). Theoretical studies (Morton et al., 1956) indicate that plume height should increase with eruption rate and empirical compilations ( Settle, 1978, Wilson et al., 1978 and Sparks et al., 1997, ) roughly follow this relationship. Some characteristic eruption parameters demonstrate extensive systematic relationships. Plume height increases with eruption rate and grain-size generally decreases with increasing silica content. However, not all relationships are systematic. The duration of eruptions may d iminish or differ non-systematically with size of eruption or type of magma. For instance, an average grain size, whilst generally decreasing with increasing silica content, might as well decrease with increasing occurrence of pyroclastic flows (Dartevelle et al., 2002). Inefficiently captured variables such as wind, particle fallout, vent overpressure, or development of hydrometeors, together with atmospheric humidity for bigger eruptions might as well influence this relationship (Mastin et al., 2009). 3. METHODOLOGY For the purpose of this study,Visual Basic for Application (VBA) was used to model the 2014 Mount Mayon volcano eruption ash cloud. Visual Basic for Application (VBA) is basically a software developed in Microsoft Excel and it is used for modelling volcanic ash particles dispersal. Generally, the model is considered to be fairly accurate in modelling volcano eruption. The model requires certain input parameters which are carefully manipulated to predict the likelihood of volcanic ash transport and dispersal. The model starts by defining a dimensional array size called ashfall and calling the parameters from the control panel created in the Excel spreadsheet. The particles are created by giving them an X and Y values, the X and Y values are the coordinates at the chosen location above the vent derived from the satellite imagery of the study area. Together with other input parameters such as wind speed and direction, diffusion coefficient, time and iterations,particles are advected and diffused along the X and Y axis they are then outputted in a second work sheet called ashfall. The code then loops this process as it has been defined by the user, for the purpose of this report the particles were set to a random function. Once the simulation is completed the particle movement in the ash sheet is then plotted on a scatter graph to view the particles and the direction of dispersion. Both worksheets are then saved in MS-DOS comma separated (.csv) file format in Excel to make it possible to import into ArcMap. The satellite image obtained from http//www.landcover.org of the area is then displayed in the ArcMap and the X and Y values from the worksheets are then imported to display the ash. The kernel density function in the analysis tool calculates the density of the dispersed ash cloud. Moreover, time and iteration were considered to give a genuine situation of the ash dispersion. Below is a copy of the code used for simulation of the ash cloud. Sub ashfall() Dim vent_x As Long, vent_y As Long Dim K As Single, vx As Single, vy As Single, dt As Single K = diffusion coefficient dt = change in time Dim max_inter As Long, no_part As Long Dim particles(1 To 1000, 1 To 2) As Single vent_x = Worksheets(Control Panel).Cells(1, 2) vent_y = Worksheets(Control Panel).Cells(2, 2) K = Worksheets(Control Panel).Cells(3, 2) vx = Worksheets(Control Panel).Cells(4, 2) vy = Worksheets(Control Panel).Cells(5, 2) dt = Worksheets(Control Panel).Cells(6, 2) max_iter = Worksheets(Control Panel).Cells(7, 2) Worksheets on right side of = to plug values into code For n = 1 To 1000 particles(n, 1) = vent_x particles(n, 2) = vent_y Next n Offset = 0 so that numbers dont overwrite eachother at each iteration For Iteration = 1 To max_iter add nested loop for iterations this allows all 1000 particles to be moved together in each step max_inter is set as 1000 in Excel For n = 1 To 1000 Rnd = random generation of number between 0 and 1 K = Diffusion Coefficent ash diffusion, where n,1 = x coordinate and n,2 = y coordinate particles(n, 1) = particles(n, 1) + K * (0.5 Rnd()) particles(n, 2) = particles(n, 2) + K * (0.5 Rnd()) ash advection particles(n, 1) = particles(n, 1) + (vx * dt) particles(n, 2) = particles(n, 2) + (vy * dt) Worksheets(Ashfall).Cells(n + Offset, 1) = particles(n, 1) Worksheets(Ashfall).Cells(n + Offset, 2) = particles(n, 2) worksheets on the left hand side of = to plug values in excel worksheet Next n Offset = Offset + 1000 Next Iteration End Sub Input parameters Variables Values Start X Long 574207 Start Y Long 1465622 v x (m/s) Single 6 vy (m/s) Single 9 Diffusion coefficient Single 500 Iterations Integer 1000 Time Integer 10 Table 1: Input parameters, variables and values used for the simulation of ash cloud for Mount Mayon 4. RESULTS OF SIMULATIONS The ash cloud simulation outcomes are portrayed in figures 3 to 7 showing the wind direction, kernel ash density and spatial contours on Open Street map and Satellite map of Mount Mayon. From the simulation, the wind velocity was in the NE direction as it can be seen in the maps. Due the magnitude of the ash cloud, nearby localities are in danger of high risk. Figures 3 and 4 depict the magnitude of the ash cloud in direction of the wind and the impact on the localities on both open street and satellites maps. Also, figure 5 on the other hand shows the levels density of the volcanic ash cloud dispersed in the study area. Regions that far away the volcano ash have minimal density of ash cloud and are not really at risk as compared to regions closer to the volcano ash with high level of density of ash cloud. With the aid of the spatial contour tool, figures 6 and 7 depicts the dispersed and settlement of the ash cloud on satellite map of the study area. Figure 3: Open street map of Mount Mayon showing dispersed ash Figure 4: Satellite map of Mount Mayon showing dispersed ash.    Figure 5: Satellite map of Mount Mayon showing kernel density of dispersed ash Figure 6: Open street map of Mount Mayo showing spatial contour of dispersed ash Figure 7: Satellite map of Mount Mayon showing the spatial contour of dispersed ash 5.1 HAZARD AND RISK IN STUDY AREA The hazard and risk in Mount Mayon cannot be under-estimated since it is one of the active volcano in the Philippines erupting about 53 times in the past 400 years. There have death and displacement of hundreds of thousands of people since it first eruption in 1616. The record violent eruption in 1814 caused death of more than 1,200 people and destroyed several towns. Volcanic flows have caused broad destruction of water supply infrastructure and systems. Water pipes have been destroyed and concealed by lahars around Mayon volcano, Philippines (Nasol, 2001 and Smithsonian Institution, 2002). Chemical pollution of water takes place as tephra particles dissolve readily upon contact with water discharging ions (Witham et al., 2005 and Delmelle et al., 2007). Agricultural activities around Mount Mayon are affected by ash cloud dispersion which reduces crop field hence shortage of food supply. Air planes and other modes of transport are at risk of ash cloud since Legazpi Airport is only 4 2.8km from Mount Mayon. Lahars are possible to destroy vehicles as they move downstream while being influenced by debris (Blong, 1984). Also, tephra particles can cause damage to vehicles by roughening moving parts and obstructing air and oil filters (Wilson et al., 2012b). Figure 9: Hazard map of Mount Mayon ; Source (google maps). Figure 10: Hazard map of Mount Mayon ; Source (google earth). 5.2 EVALUATION OF HAZARD AND RISK IN STUDY AREA. To mitigate the hazards and risks associated with volcano eruption, there must be implementation of policies and disaster control measures must be put in place. Minimizing the effects of volcanic eruptions on the study must be the fundamental objective of ash cloud hazard and risk management. Land-use pressure, population growth and societys expectancy of infrastructure performance during and after disasters makes this a challenge. However, impacts of the 2014 Mount Mayon volcano eruption can by adopting the following strategies; Creating awareness of volcanic risks and hazards and their impacts through communication strategies and educating the general public. This can be achieved through the use of both print media and electronic media. Also, Government must see to it that, projects and policies of building and planning are implemented effectively to eradicate indiscriminate and unauthorized building of houses and other structures in volcano prone areas. Evacuation plans, emergency response and temporary housing should be put in place to minimize the rate of fatalities associated with volcano eruption in the region. There should also be regular monitoring of volcanic eruption of the area by utilizing highly advanced models and high-tech machines as this will help predict upcoming eruption. 6. DETAILED DISCUSSIONS AND CRITICAL EVALUATIONS OF THE MODEL AND SOFTWARE. The Visual Application Software (VBA) software developed from Microsoft Excel is basically easy to understand and quick to run for ash cloud modelling. It is also affordable and very instrumental for predicting the extent of ash cloud transport and dispersion utilizing input parameters according the users preferences. However, the software is is limited to the number of particles that can be modelled at the same time. Also, only one direction of ash cloud is dispersed at a particular time. The accuracy of the model could be improved if input parameters such as plume height and eruption rate are taken into account. When compared with other advanced models such as NAME, FALL3D and PUFF, Visual Application Software (VBA) cannot be used for continuous discharge of ash particles to model full volcano eruption but rather for single release of ash particles. Regardless of its limitations, Visual Application Software (VBA) software is still very useful for modelling ash cloud simulation. 7. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK. In conclusion, the hazard and risk associated with ash cloud transport and dispersion cannot be under-estimated in Mount Mayon. Therefore, proper planning and strategies must be put in place to mitigate the fatalities of volcano eruption in the future. Although the government responsible for major policies implementation, the general public together with non-governmental agencies must work hand-in-hand to minimize the negative impact of volcano eruption in the region. Despite the model limitations, Visual Application Software (VBA) is very useful tool for modelling volcanic ash cloud simulation. It is also easy to comprehend and fast but if other input parameters added to create a new, it will enhance it accuracy. 8. REFERENCE Baxter, P., Boyle, R., Cole, P., Neri, A., Spence, R., Zuccaro, G. (2005). The impacts of pyroclastic surges on buildings at the eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat. Bulletin of Volcanology, 67(4), 292-313, available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-004-0365-7. Baxter, P., Aspinall, W., Neri, A., Zuccaro, G., Spence, R., Cioni, R., Woo, G. (2008). Emergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: A new evidence-based approach. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 178(3), 454-473. Blong, 1984 R.J. Blong Volcanic Hazards: A Sourcebook on the Effects of Eruptions Academic Press, Sydney (1984). Blong R (1996) Volcanic hazard risk assessment. In: Scarpa R, Tilling RI (eds) Monitoring and mitigation of volcanic hazards. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York, pp675-698. Carey, S., à ¯Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ Sigurdsson, H. (1982). Influence of particle aggregation on deposition of distal tephra from the May 18, 1980, eruption of Mount St. Helens volcano. J. Geophys, Res., 87 (B8), 7061. Cronin et al., 1998 S.J. Cronin, M.J. Hedley, V.J. Neal, G. Smith Agronomic impact of tephra fallout from 1996 and 1996 Ruapehu volcanic eruptions, New Zealand Environmental Geology, 34 (1998), pp. 21-30. Cronin et al., 2003 S.J. Cronin, V.E. Neall, J.A. Lecointre, M.J. Hedley, P. Loganathan Environmental hazards of fluoride in volcanic ash: a case study from Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand Journal of Volcanology Geothermal Research, 121 (2003), pp. 271-291 Dartevelle et al., 2002 S. Dartevelle, G.G.J. Ernst, J. Stix, A. Bernard Origin of the Mount Pinatubo climactic eruption cloud: Implications for volcanic hazards and atmospheric impacts Geology, 30 (7) (2002), pp. 663-666. Delmelle et al., 2007 P. Delmelle, M. Lambert, Y. Dufrà ªne, P. Gerin, N. Óskarsson Gas/aerosol-ash interaction in volcanic plumes: new insights from surface analysis of fine ash particles Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 259 (2007), pp. 159-170. Durant, A.J., 2007. On Water in Volcanic Clouds. Ph.D. Thesis, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, Michigan, 242 pp. Durant, A.J., Rose, W.I., 2009-this volume. Sedimentological constraints on hydro-meteor-enhanced particle deposition: 1992 eruptions of Crater Peak, Alaska.Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. Durant, A.J., Rose, W.I., Sarna-Wojcicki, A.M., Carey, S., Volentik, A.C., 2009-this volume.Hydrometeor-enhanced tephra sedimentation from the 18 May 1980 Mount St.Helens (USA) volcanic cloud. Journal of Geophysical Research. Durant, A.J., Shaw, R.A., Rose, W.I., Mi, Y., Ernst, G.G.J., 20 08. Ice nucleation andoverseeding of ice in volcanic clouds. Journal of Geophysical Research 113 Horwell and Baxter, 2006 C.J. Horwell, P.J. Baxter The respiratory health hazards of volcanic ash: a review for volcanic risk mitigation Bulletin of Volcanology, 69 (2006), pp. 1-24 J. Rougier, R.S.J. Sparks, L. Hill Risk and uncertainty assessment for natural hazards Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2013) (588 pp.) Johnston, D.M., 1997. The physical and social impacts of past and future volcanic eruptions in New Zealand. Unpublished PhD thesis, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand. Johnston, D.M., Houghton, B.F., Neall, V.E., Ronan, K.R., Paton, D., 2000. Impacts of the 1945 and 1995-1996 Ruapehu eruptions, New Zealand: an example of increasing societal vulnerability. Geological Society of America Bulletin 112, 720-726. Johnston, D., Stewart, C., Leonard, G., Hoverd, J., Thordarsson, T., Cronin, S., 2004: Impacts of volcanic ash on water supplies in Auckland: Part 1. Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences, Lower Hutt, Science Report 2004/25, 83 pp. Langmann, B., Folch, A., Hensch, M. and Matthias, V., 2012. Volcanic ash over Europe during the eruption of Eyjafjallajà ¶kull on Iceland, April-May 2010. Atmospheric Environment, 48, pp.1-8. Mastin, 2002 L.G. Mastin Insights into volcanic conduit flow from an open-source numerical model Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 3 (7) (2002) 10.1029 Mastin, 2007 L.G. Mastin A user-friendly one-dimensional model for wet volcanic plumes Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 8 (Q03014) (2007) Mastin and Spiegel, in preparation Mastin, L.G., Spiegel, J., Ewert, J. W., Guffanti, M., in review. Spreadsheet of eruption source parameters for active volcanoes of the world, U.S. Geological Survey open-file report. Morton et al., 1956 B.R. Morton, G.I. Taylor, J.S. Turner Turbulent gravitational convection from maintained and instantaneous sources. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series A, 234 (1956), pp. 1-23. Nasol, 2001 R. Nasol Nanang aftermath, lahar destroys towns

Statistics Essays | Analysis of Data

Statistics Essays | Analysis of Data Consider and discuss the required approach to analysis of the data set provided. As part of this explore also how you would test the hypothesis below and explain the reasons for your decisions. Hypothesis 1: Male children are taller than female children. Null hypothesis; There is no difference in height between male children and female children. Hypothesis 2: Taller children are heavier. Null hypothesis: There is no relationship between how tall children are and how much they weigh. Analysis of data set The data set is a list of 30 childrens gender, age, height, the data weight, upper and lower limb lengths, eye colour, like of chocolate or not andIQ. There are two main things to consider before and the data. These are the types of data and the quality of the data as a sample. Types of data could be nominal, ordinal, interval or ratio.Nominal is also know as categorical. Coolican (1990) gives more details of all of these and his definitions have been used to decide the types of data in the data set. It is also helpful to distinguish between continuous numbers, which could be measured to any number of decimal places an discrete numbers such as integers which have finite jumps like 1,2 etc. Gender This variable can only distinguish between male or female.There is no order to this and so the data is nominal. Age This variable can take integer values. It could be measured to decimal places, but is generally only recorded as integer. It is ratio data because, for example, it would be meaningful to say that a 20 year old person is twice as old as a 10 year old. In this data set, the ages range from 120 months to 156months. This needs to be consistent with the population being tested. Height This variable can take values to decimal places if necessary. Again it is ratio data because, for example, it would be meaningful to say that a person who is 180 cm tall is 1.5 times as tall as someone 120cmtall. In this sample it is measured to the nearest cm. Weight Like height, this variable could take be measured to decimal places and is ratio data. In this sample it is measured to the nearest kg. Upper and lower limb lengths Again this variable is like height and weight and is ratio data. Eye colour This variable can take a limited number of values which are eye colours. The order is not meaningful. This data is therefore nominal(categorical). Like of chocolate or not As with eye colour, this variable can take a limited number of values which are the sample members preferences. In distinguishing merely between liking and disliking, the order is not meaningful. This data is therefore nominal (categorical). IQ IQ is a scale measurement found by testing each sample member. As such it is not a ratio scale because it would not be meaningful to say, for example, that someone with a score of 125 is 25% more intelligent than someone with a score of 100. There is another level of data mentioned by Cooligan into which none of the data set variables fit. That is Ordinal Data. This means that the data have an order or rank which makes sense. An example would be if 10students tried a test and you recorded who finished quickest, 2ndquickest etc, but not the actual time. The data is intended to be a sample from a population about which we can make inferences. For example in the hypothesis tests we want toknow whether they are indicative of population differences. The results can only be inferred on the population from which it is drawn it would not be valid otherwise. Details of sampling methods were found in Bland (2000). To accomplish the required objectives, the sample has to be representative of the defined population. It would also be more accurate if the sample is stratified by known factors like gender and age. This means that, for example, the proportion of males in the sample is the same as the proportion in the population. Sample size is another consideration. In this case it is 30.Whether this is adequate for the hypotheses being tested is examined below. Hypothesis 1: Male children are taller than female children. Swift (2001) gives a very readable account of the hypothesis testing process and the structure of the test. The first step is to set up the hypotheses: The Null hypothesis is that there is no difference in height between male children and female children. If the alternative was as Coolican describes it as we do not predict in which direction the results will go then it would have been a two-tailed test. In this case the alternative is that males are taller it is therefore a specific direction and so a one-tailed test is required. To test the hypothesis we need to set up a test statistic and then either match it against a pre-determined critical value or calculate the probability of achieving the sample value based on the assumption that the null hypothesis is true. The most commonly used significance level is 0.05. Accordingto Swift (2001) the significance level must be decided before the data is known. This is to stop researchers adjusting the significance level to get the result that they want rather than accepting or rejecting objectively. If the test statistic probability is less than 0.05 we would reject the null hypothesis that there is no difference between males and females in favour of males being heavier on the one sided basis. However it is possible for the test statistic to be in the rejection zone when in fact the null hypothesis is true. This is called a TypeI error. It is also possible for the test statistic to be in the acceptance zone when the alternative hypothesis is true (in other words the null hypothesis is false). This is called a Type II error. Power is 1 -probability of a Type II error and is therefore the probability of correctly rejecting a false null hypothesis. Whereas the Type I error is set at the desired level, the Type II error depends on the actual value of the alternative hypothesis. Coolican (1990) sets out the possible outcomes in the following table:

Henry VII & Richard III :: European Europe History

Henry VII & Richard III Richard the Third had just recently become King of England. But he did not know that soon he would not Henry Tudor was from Wales. His surname was really spelt 'Tewdwr.' It was changed to the English way though when he became King of England. Henry was too to France by his Uncle Jasper in 1471, fourteen years before the Battle of Bosworth. His uncle took him to Brittany. There, Henry learnt a lot. He learnt about warfare, treachery and betrayal. He also learned about court politics and how to keep supporters. This helped Henry very much with the Battle of Bosworth. Henry landed at Milford haven in South Wales. He had about two thousand soldiers with him. He marched all through Wales and the Midlands. When he got to the battle site he had around five thousand troops. He had gained more than three thousand on his journey. The battle was fought up on a hill at Bosworth. At the battle site there was a third army. It was small and led by Lord William Stanley. It did not know what side to join. Henry started the battle by moving up the hill and charging at Richard. Stanley decided which side to join. It would be Henry's. He hit on the rear of Richards army causing the Kings forces to run. Richard fell from his horse in the rush and was eventually killed. As the battle ended, Stanley found the Kings crown hanging on a thorn bush. Lord Stanley crowned Henry the King of England. Henry then married Edward the IV'S daughter Elizabeth. This united both of the families together. The battle of Bosworth wasn't any old battle. It was very important in history. The Lancastrian, Henry Tudor defeated the Yorkist, Richard the third at the battle of Bosworth field in 1485 and became King

Sexual and Maternal Instincts in James Fenimore Coopers Last of the Mohicans :: The Last of the Mohicans

Cora Munro's Sexual and Maternal Instincts in James Fenimore Cooper's The Last of the Mohicans Cora Munro's relationship with her younger, fairer sister Alice demonstrates a distinct mother-daughter pattern that manifests itself in every interaction between the two women. Throughout James Fenimore Cooper's The Last of the Mohicans, the character of Cora continuously hides her sister's face in her bosom as an indication of undying protection from the ravages of the American frontier. Alice depends on Cora as her champion and defender but, most unmistakably as a mother figure. Cora maintains a immutable position of motherly nurture with her sister, however, when interacting with other frontier characters, Cora shifts her style of human interaction towards a conscious understanding of her gender capacity. Though not overtly sexual, Cora does demonstrate a cognizance of female sexuality and feminine influence on various male characters. Cora does not often demonstrate motherly instinct while practicing the powers of her sex; rather, her authority particular to each sphere man ifests itself during situations of great conflict and tension concerning Alice or, separately, the other surrounding male characters. The narrator refers to Cora's motherly intuition in many instances, but most especially when Alice demonstrates a case of need or dependence. When Alice shows doubt and fear, Cora immediately rushes to protect and soothe her. Cooper writes, "For many moments the elder sister looked upon the younger, with a countenance that wavered with powerful and contending emotions. At length she spoke, though her tones had lost heir rich and calm fulness, in an expression of tenderness, that seemed maternal" (109). Cooper writes clearly of the strong bond that exists between the sisters while illustrating a power relationship that has Cora playing the role of shepherd and Alice as that of a small, helpless lamb. Moreover, Cooper repeatedly shows the character of Alice grasping onto the arm of Duncan Heyward†¹an obvious physical need for refuge and shield†¹while Cora remains free of an explicit male bond and receives the admiration of the remaining men from afar. Alice, the weaker of the two, appeals to her sister for attention while Cora remains aloof and confident. Cooper, at many instances, describes Cora with almost beatific characteristics which heighten her esteem and power as a female character. Her motherly feelings towards Alice verge on the saintly; Cora often rises above common human sensibility and takes on the role of a martyr in the manner that a mother would for her child.

Patrick Combs Self-Help Guide for Needful College Freshmen

If there is a recipe for self-help books, two of the necessary ingredients are an endorsement from a â€Å"name† self-help or motivation guru/author and trotting out the old Teddy Roosevelt â€Å"man in the arena† mantra. Combs has both: Tom Peters’ kudus on the cover and The Roughrider on page 28. What’s missing is a touch of truth and reality. Nowhere does Mr. Combs describe his own success (perhaps â€Å"I knew I’d never be happy until I got a self-help book published!†) or many student’s real world (perhaps a chapter on majoring in the success of your dysfunctional family, lack of money for traffic fines, broken or stolen personal property, drugged-out roommate and boy/girl friend issues). Instead, Mr. Combs supplies his readers with 154 pages detailing and expanding on a single maxim: figure out what you want to do it life, and do it. Major in Success has some major flaws as well as some great advice. Nonetheless there is a great deal to be gathered from Major in Success, but probably not in the manner Mr. Combs planned. Some great lessons can be learned from understanding not just what is in the book, but what it is that makes the book successful, despite its shortcomings. There are several flaws in Mr. Combs’ advice. First and foremost, the text is replete with anecdotal â€Å"evidence† and devoid of meaningful, quantifiable facts and statistics, and those used are rather disingenuous. In the chapter â€Å"Never Mind the Grades† he cites â€Å"a recent study by the College Review Board† indicating GPA is below ten other factors considered by employers (47).   He uses this â€Å"fact† to buttress his argument to â€Å"never mind the grades†. He fails to mention that in a very competitive job market when ALL of the applicants have those first ten factors, it will likely be factor 11—GPA—that makes the difference. The second glaring discrepancy relates not only to grades but also his contradictory attitude towards the significance of grades. His theory â€Å"college is for developing your talents to learn and do, so that you can learn and do anything you like† (20) begs the question â€Å"then how is that measured?† Most people, including employers, will use grades as the yardstick for learning ability. Mr. Combs fails to address the significance of a student’s â€Å"focus† or major in college. He claims if time spent on â€Å"extracurricular activities is having a negative impact on your grades, don’t panic† (50). He advises telling the prospective employer to the effect â€Å"sure my grades were mediocre, but various club memberships and internships were my priority.† Ask yourself if you would like to say that on a job interview, or â€Å"I managed to knock down a 3.7 GPA with a major in math and a minor in history while working 25 hours a week to help pay tuition and board†? Throughout the text Mr. Combs offers a â€Å"follow your inner voice, go for happiness, not money† philosophy. Goals change, life events come unexpected and being prepared to shift gears quickly is a key asset. A student may regret having used his college time to develop his knowledge and skills in an area of particular interest only to be caught short later when his interest, income needs, or location changes. The â€Å"follow your passion regardless of income† theory works well for those without monetary needs, retirees, and even second or third career adults capable of turning a hobby into a profitable business. However, the practicality of the theory may come into question years later, when either a more fundamental education (liberal arts) gives flexibility or a mainstream â€Å"certificate† program (nursing, teaching) provides job security. There are no less than three very good reasons to read this book. Mr. Combs has filled the margins with hundreds of â€Å"hot tips† and quotations. Included are a large number of references to other texts and sources. He also provides an excellent chapter entitled â€Å"Classes Worth Their Weight in Gold†, detailing almost a dozen courses with universal value. A concentration on these classes will do wonders for marketplace flexibility. The chapter â€Å"Really Get Into It† provides a detailed list of seventeen items designed to turn interest into expertise. There are less obvious lessons to be learned from Major in Success that are arguably just as important as the ideas expressed in the text. Mr. Combs has a â€Å"Special Thanks† page listing probably a hundred or more persons who assisted him. Success is usually a team sport, and the value of associating with mentors and goal-oriented people is invaluable. The book is very well organized; the Table of Contents lists three major sections divided into twenty-nine succinct chapters. If there is ever a life lesson to be learned, particularly for a college student, it is the value of organization. Additionally the text is filled with lists. Making lists is essential for planning, organizing, and tracking in college and throughout life, for anyone.   Finally, the format of the text is very effective, with graphics, margin notes, and lists in a unique and â€Å"out of the box† manner. Individuality cannot be overemphasized. Today there is no typical college student, and whether the reader is an eighteen-year-old freshman or an older adult returning for a second career they will find something in Major for Success applicable to their specific situation. Works Cited Combs, Patrick. Major in Success. California: Ten Speed Press, 1998.

Pob Marketing Sba Essay

This study seeks to investigate the marketing strategy of Kenlee’s & Company Cereal Limited (KCCL). This successful cereal producer prides itself on having a quality product and a policy of putting customer satisfaction first. The importance of the marketing mix, market research, competitors, substitutes and customer satisfaction all impact on the strategy adopted by KCCL. The impact of branding and the various choices available to the marketing department will be discussed and the Ethical responsibility KCCL owes to its customers will be highlighted. Description of the Business Kenlee Cereal & Company Limited (KCCL) was founded in 1987 as a privately owned family business. The company is involved in the production and marketing of cereals. In1997 it took on a partner to provide more capital. It is also a limited liability business. This medium sized company employs 50 persons. It is financed by loans, personal savings and investments through its partnership with its local business partner Erica’s Country Styled Honey Roasted Peanuts. KCCL is located off the Sir Solomon Hochoy Highway close to the Presal fly-over. It plans to become the leading exporter of cereals in the Caribbean and thereafter the international market. Organization of the Marketing Department Organization of the Marketing Department Marketing Manager: – The Marketing Manager is responsible for the cereal marketing and also the profit and loss of his department. Advertising Manager:- The Advertising Manager oversees the whole process of advertising for KCCL. The process begins from market research and finally leading to the actual sales. Advertising at KCCL is based on the image the company seeks to portray. In this case, the company is concerned about producing a cheap, quality, nutritious and tasty product. Sales Manager:- Sales Managers are responsible for sales. Their role involves organizing, motivating and leading sales teams. They are responsible for the combined performance of the team. At KCCL, Sales Managers are responsible for: †¢Recruiting and training sales staff †¢Supervising, motivating and monitoring team performance †¢Allocating areas to sales executives †¢Setting budgets/targets †¢Liaising with customers which includes actual selling (Wholesalers, Retailers) †¢Keeping abreast of what competitors are doing Market Research Customers differ on many dimensions- taste, needs, and expectations. Managers therefore need to ensure that their product satisfies these tastes. Market research is therefore very important to reveal customer needs. Before this can be done the potential customers had to be identified. This is done by either: †¢Targeting the whole population †¢Segmentation (geographical, behavioral or demographics) †¢Niche marketing KCCL has chosen to target the whole population. At the company’s recent launch of its new product. KCCL chose to segment themarket using demographics to identify its customers. Characteristics such as age,income, occupation or education can be used to divide the population. In theintroduction of its new Granola Bar, age was used to identify the target population.The age groups were: †¢3-14years †¢15-35years †¢36 and older The marketing manager identified the needs of these groups with respect to their nutritional needs. The (3-14years) group indicated that these persons  needed proper nutrition in order to promote healthy growth and development. The (15-35 years), included students and persons â€Å"on the go†.The (36years and over), were persons who did not need to eat as much. This group’s mainconcern was focused on the maintenance of their health. The study of these segments identified a market for a nutritious meal-Kenlee’s Crunchy Bar was the result. Price Price is an important aspect of the marketing mix which must be considered. The price a product is sold at is dependent on the following:- †¢The pricing objective the firm sets for itself †¢The demand for the product †¢Cost incurred in production, marketing and distribution The product characteristics Pricing is very competitive as there are four other similar companies with whom KCCL has to compete with. KCCl’s prices are based on cost plus mark up. KCCL has chosen a Market leadership objective. The aim is to increase their share of the market. Competitors The market is very competitive. There are four major companies that sell the same products. See pie chart which shows the percentage of the market held by these cerealmanufacturers. Substitutes Substitutes are a threat to any company. This occurs if there is in existence products thatcan replace it. There needs to be qualities that the product exhibits that identifies it fromothers, if possible. Sales Forecast The following table shows a sales forecast for KCCLs products. This was based onhistorical records of sales for the past five years. ProductUnits/Mth (000)Retail Price ($ per unit) Cereal1000$2.00 K Flakes200$2.50 Wheat Thins1500$15.25 Coco Flakes100$13.50 Branding and Packaging The Cereals produced are branded under the name KCCL and it is a well known brand.The product carries a distinctive red and white logo of the company. Branding is veryimportant because it allows consumers to identify the product of a particular manufacturer. Branding issues include: †¢Brand name selection †¢Brand name extension †¢Brand sponsor KCCL’s launch of its new product, Kenlee’s Crunchy Bar was under its present brandname. This name has been established in the minds of consumers as a quality cereal. Ithas therefore chosen a line extension strategy since its product has similar features to its present products. KCCL packages its products using attractive foil packaging. The packaging carries thecompany’s colors for immediate identification. The colors used for the logo are the colorsof the nation flag of Trinidad and Tobago.Information given on the packaging includes: †¢Nutritional information †¢Ingredient †¢Expiry date KCCL ’s Price Strategy Their strategy is to to have market-share leadership to ensure its continued survival andexistence. It has chosen to sell its products at the lowest possible price in order to capturea large share of the market. Place The method by which the product gets to the consumers is called channels of distribution.KCCL has a fleet of vehicles to transport its products. It also subcontracts delivery invery far geographical areas. Many small retailers buy directly from the centrally locatedoffice. Delivery is made twice weekly by boat to Tobago. Promotion Mix Kenlee Cereal & Company Limited (KCCL) advertises it products by the use of print,radio and television. In-store displays are sponcered by local businesses. The selling of KCCL’s products are carried out through, sales meetings, sales presentations and incentive programs. KCCL products are promoted by the use of coupons and product samples. It also promotes its products through contests. Government Regulations The Bureau of Standards sets the standards in Trinidad and Tobago in terms of qualityand workmanship of products. Some standards include: †¢Products must be labelled †¢All ingredients identified †¢The value added tax (VAT) must be included in labelling of the price †¢Information must also be written in English Technology KCCL uses high mechanization which reduces costs. All machinery used by KCCL isvery efficient and this increases productivity of the company. Record keeping iscomputerized. Consumer Complaints KCCL has two consumer complaint offices; one is located at its head quarters and the other in Tobago. KCCL addresses all complaints and has a three day response policy. Ethical Issues †¢Ingredients stated on the labeling and advertising of products is accurate and not misleading †¢Correct declaration of sales for taxation. †¢Proper disposal of waste †¢Money laundering to hide illegal business transactions KCCL has maintained its motto of having good legal and ethical business standards Conclusion Key to success of Kenlee’s & Company Cereal Limited are: 1.Quality products. 2.Good customer service. 3.Good distribution channel. 4.High ethical and business standards.